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VISION ZERO: GETTING TO ZERO
Highlights from Vision Zero Symposium presentation, November 14, 2014

The purpose of measurement is to know what is working, how much progress has been made, and to evaluate what else should be done. Applied to Vision Zero, New York City's ambitious plan to reach zero traffic fatalities, measurement means tracking the impact of "known" measures such as street redesigns and camera enforcement. It also means delving into the less well-known intersection of changes in law and culture, backed up by effective and sustained enforcement.

Projects to redesign high-crash streets and intersections, reduce their complexity, eliminate conflicts between drivers and pedestrians, improve visibility of street users to each other, and importantly, reduce opportunities for speeding, are proven strategies to reduce crashes and save lives. NYCDOT's report on Making Safer Streets documents the effects: generally 20 percent to 60 percent reduction in motor vehicle crashes with serious injuries. This strategy is well-established and continues to be a focus of the city's Vision Zero efforts.

But how do we get the rest of the way to zero? Doing so requires the same blend of strategies that successfully led to a sea change in social norms for acceptable behavior and public approval of enforcement against deviant behavior for drunk driving, seat belt use and smoking in offices and public places. It requires a clear, data-driven definition of the problem, broad public education, and creating the public support for countermeasures and enforcement.

The data we have available shows that exposure and risk to pedestrians is greatest on high-traffic, high-speed roads, and so exposure and risk are higher in the outerboroughs than in Manhattan, as the following table shows:

Pedestrian fatalities per 1 million minutes of walking

  • Manhattan - 1.3
  • Bronx - 3.2
  • Brooklyn - 3.2
  • Queens - 3.8
  • Staten Island - 9.6
We also know that drivers involved in serious crashes are disproportionately young and male (57% of crashes that kill or seriously injure pedestrians involve male drivers age 20-49), that a substantial proportion of crashes with serious pedestrian injuries occur in the crosswalk with the pedestrian crossing with the signal, and that drivers' failure to yield to pedestrians, and "driver inattention" are common contributing factors to pedestrian injury crashes. (See this report.)

The picture here is pretty simple: what kills and seriously injures is a combination of excessive speed and careless or aggressive driving. Drivers are in a hurry, they go too fast, they are distracted by texting and talking on the phone or who-knows-what-else, and they don't see the pedestrian.

We need a next generation of technology and licensing programs to bridge the gap between what street design can do, and getting to zero. There is precedent for this -- for example, in alcohol ignition switches required of drivers convicted of drinking and driving, and graduated licensing programs for younger drivers. The analogies for careless and aggressive driving might be "black boxes" that would track drivers' speeds and restricted licenses for drivers who repeatedly show they are not able to drive safely outside of commuting hours, when speeds are slower anyway.

Building support for measures like these will depend on public believing that it is no longer acceptable to go fast, to be distracted, to get yourself in a position where you may not see someone. Careless and aggressive driving needs to join graffiti on subway cars, squeegee men, drug dealing on the corner and all forms of "broken windows" as unacceptable transgressions of public order and therefore: problems that the law enforcement system should work to rectify. These are all forms of public disorder, all things that compromise public safety.

Perhaps it is just aligning perception with reality. Traffic fatalities rise and fall with homicides -- two violent means of death, two sides of the same coin.

Traffic Fatalities & Homicides in NYC
3-year rolling average, 1950-2013

Traffic Fatalities & Homicides in NYC


This is a summary of Bruce Schaller's presentation in the "Beyond Zero" panel at Vision Zero for Cities Symposium, held in New York City on November 14, 2014.